295
FXUS65 KPSR 251946
AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1246 PM MST Wed Mar 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably hot conditions will continue to challenge daily
temperatures records through the rest of the week and into the
weekend.
- These hot conditions may be dangerous, especially for any
strenuous outdoor activities without proper hydration and
frequent breaks in the shade, or air conditioning.
- Temperatures should finally begin to back away from record
territory by the end of the weekend as the high shifts east and
cloud cover and shower chances increase.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On mid-level water vapor imagery strong ridging can still be seen
lingering over the Western CONUS. The center of the ridge however
is now well to our region`s southeast, centered over SE AZ, SW
NM, and Northern Mexico area. While the center of the ridge is
not over our region, H5 heights are still quite high, with heights
today between 857-590 dam. These heights remain in the max of
NAEFS climatological percentile. In response, afternoon high
temperatures across the lower deserts, today through Friday, will
generally be between 98-102 degrees. These temperatures will
continue to flirt with breaking record highs, and at the very
least tying the previous records. Friday is expected to be the
warmest day, before a pattern shift expected in the ladder half of
the weekend.
An area of low pressure, currently sitting off the California
Coast, will begin to move inland by late tonight / early Thursday
morning. This area of low pressure will help facilitate breezier
conditions, mostly along the Colorado River Valley and in SE CA.
As the low progresses inland, it does look to weaken so winds are
expected to be under advisory levels, but gusts between 15-25 mph
will be common, with the higher range mostly confined to the
ridge top areas. Calm conditions will resume by Thursday evening
once this tiny disturbance passes through Northern Arizona into
the Four corners region.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Heading into the weekend, a potent cold front will dive south across
the Plains with a strong surface high building in behind it. This
will result in noticeable enhancement of our regional pressure
gradient, generating breezy to locally windy conditions for areas
primarily east of the Colorado River. The highest gusts, which
may exceed 35 mph, will be focused over the higher terrain areas
east of the Phoenix metro area, but gusts 20-30 mph look possible
(50-60%) for lower desert areas of South-Central and Southwestern
Arizona. It appears likely (~80% chance) that some areas in the
AZ high terrain will experience gusts that reach Wind Advisory
criteria. However, with the limited spatial and temporal scope of
advisory level winds, no products will be issued at this time. If
future guidance expands the areas of 40+ mph gusts, then it would
not be surprising to see an advisory issued in the coming days.
Temperature wise, the front half of the weekend will pick up where
the previous few days left off as readings in the upper 90s to
around 100 degrees will be common once more.
The back half of the weekend may yield a very welcome change as
the high begins to shift further east, with the axis of this
feature becoming centered over the Front Range and the Central
Plains. As the high shifts, it will impart southerly flow over the
region which will tap into to sub-tropical moisture, setting up
an almost quasi-monsoonal pattern over the Desert Southwest.
Models continue to suggest PWATs increasing to 200-250% of normal
across the majority of Arizona by Sunday. This flux will, at the
very least, bring in considerable cloud cover over the region,
helping to decrease insolation and lowering our temperatures,
albeit just by a bit. Some showers and perhaps some thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out in association with moisture at these levels,
especially out in eastern Arizona and along our higher terrain
areas of Gila County, but with temperatures remaining well-above
normal, it would take a decent amount more moisture to achieve
higher probabilities and greater coverage of any precipitation.
Another factor that will likely inhibit any widespread showers and
thunderstorms will be a lack of forcing. Synoptic lift will be
missing so any vertical development would have to rely solely on
orographic influence. As of now, PoPs for our eastern most areas
stand at 20-25%, with less than 10% chances for the lower deserts.
Any hope of rainfall for lower elevation areas will have to follow
any outflow boundaries moving off the high terrain, but with where
potential storms may initiate, and the expected storm motion,
that appears to be an unlikely outcome at this point.
Rainfall Monday cannot be ruled out just yet as elevated moisture
looks to remain over the region. However, it looks as if the
start of next week may suffer from a similar setup as Sunday with
decent moisture but not enough supporting lift. Even though there
are some ensemble members that indicate better instability on
Monday, the best chances for showers and thunderstorms is only
around 20% out where enhanced terrain features can induce
precipitation development. There are signs of an East Pacific
trough approaching the West Coast toward the end of the forecast
period. If this were to speed up at all and interact with
lingering moisture, we could be talking about better rain chances
in the coming days for the beginning of April.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 1734Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather impacts expected, under mostly clear skies
through Thursday. Winds will follow a persistent directional
pattern to the past few days, with a diurnal westerly shift around
midday and easterly shift just before midnight. Wind speeds will
be around 5-10 kts during the day, with occasional afternoon gusts
into the teens, and lighter winds overnight.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather impacts expected, with FEW to SCT high clouds
this afternoon through tonight. At KIPL, southeasterly winds are
expected through this afternoon before shifting out of the west
this evening, with a few gusts up to 20 kts possible. At KBLH,
winds will fluctuate between the south to southwest through this
evening, with speeds picking up to 8-13 kts and gusting up to 20
kts this afternoon. Winds weaken and become more variable at KBLH
tonight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Record heat along with very dry conditions will continue through
at least the start of the weekend. MinRH values will run generally
around 5-10% over the next few afternoons before increasing
closer to 10-20% starting Saturday. MaxRHs will follow a similar
uptrend with readings close to 20-40% the next few mornings before
rising through the weekend. Winds through the end of the workweek
should be generally light and follow diurnal trends, although
some marginal breeziness (gusts 15-25 mph) will be observed this
afternoon and Thursday afternoon. Stronger winds (gusts 25-35
mph) enter the picture late Friday into Saturday mainly, for areas
east of the Colorado River. Higher gusts upwards of 40+ mph will
be likely (~80% chance) for portions of the Arizona high terrain,
but should be confined to the highest ridgetops. With very dry air
in place, marginal breezes will lead to periods of elevated fire
weather conditions through Friday. Even with the enhanced winds
for Saturday, RHs should come up enough to limit critical
thresholds for being met, but continued elevated, to near
critical, conditions can be expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily record highs through this week:
Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro
---- ------- ---- ---------
3/25 99 in 2025 99 in 1896 99 in 2025
3/26 100 in 1988 99 in 1988 98 in 1988
3/27 98 in 1986 100 in 1986 99 in 1988
3/28 95 in 2015 98 in 2015 98 in 2015
3/29 97 in 2015 100 in 1897 97 in 1969
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/RW
CLIMATE...RW/18
NWS Phoenix Office
Tucson, AZ 
