Tucson, AZ 
330 FXUS65 KTWC 232207 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 307 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A Pacific low pressure system will cross the region through this weekend. On and off periods of rain will occur today through Saturday across much of southeast Arizona. Accumulating snow is likely through early Sunday in mountain elevations above 7000 feet, with a Winter Weather Advisory in effect. Well below normal temperatures are expected Saturday and Sunday before a warming trend arrives early next week. && .DISCUSSION...A moist southerly flow continues over the area this afternoon out ahead of an upper level low that was just west of the Baja Spur per the afternoon WV imagery. Rainfall totals in the past 18 hours range from zero across western Pima county to 0.25" to 0.75" across Cochise county where some locals have recorded between 1" and 1.70". With the showers moving across the area today, there have been some embedded lightning. Snow level, per obs and morning Tucson sounding was above the mountain tops. More rain is in the forecast over the next 36 hours as the upper low west of the Baja Spur opens up and moves through Sonora MX and an upper level trof, currently across southern Idaho this afternoon, moves across the area tomorrow night into Sunday morning. Additional QPF east of western Pima county range from 0.10" to 1", with over 1" in the mountains. Snow levels will gradually lower down to 7000 feet over the next 12 hours with snow totals in the 6-12" by Saturday night. Winter weather advisory goes into effect at 5 pm for the mountain ranges from Tucson NE to the White mountains. Added the Chiricahua Mtns to the Winter Weather Advisory starting at 5 am Saturday. With the upper trof passing thru Sunday morning, showers will be ending fairly quickly from W to E with Sunday afternoon dry. Cool weekend in store with highs in the 50s and 60s with warmest highs across western Pima county, where not much rain will fall. Temperatures rebound a few degrees on Monday Days 4 thru 7 (Tuesday thru Friday): Little changes were made to the NBM forecast initialization which has dry conditions and near normal high temperatures. && .AVIATION...Valid through 24/12Z. Mainly BKN-OVC conds at 4-8k ft AGL with pd of -SHRA/SHRA and ISOLD TS thru the end of the valid pd for all terminals. MVFR conds are psbl during pds of SHRA activity. Sfc winds mostly S/SW 6-12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...An area of low pressure will impact our region today through Saturday night into Sunday morning. Expect on and off valley rain and mountain snow, along with cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity. 20-foot winds will be less than 15 mph and terrain driven. A return to dry conditions Sunday into next week with temperatures returning to near normal by Tuesday. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for AZZ510-511-514. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 5 AM MST Sunday for AZZ512. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
